"We have no idea how far they were jumping, or where"

We are not told why they were choosing the jump coordinates they chose. We cannot say what they were looking for specifically, except in such episodes where they were specifically hunting (such as for water, food, or Tylium).

So, this is my thinking when I think "well, sure, there MIGHT have been research expeditions sent out, deep space explorations, but it's pretty unlikely that the Fleet would ever encounter them."

Although it might make for a nice side-story, some deep-space research vessel coming back to Caprica AFTER the Cylons have abandoned it.

"but the belt might be visible from a dozen stars in this area, and a dozen more on the other side of us."

I'm still chalking up Orion's Belt being visible as a stupid goof***.

I squinted at the screen last night during one of the episodes and it appears in roughly the same configuration we see it, so if it's NOT a goof, then the Galactica is located in an approximate line with two known endpoints*. Earth is in that line as well, and close to the Galactica (or vice versa, if you prefer)**.

-=-=-=-=-
* the line: the line is such that only objects (planets, spaceships, or sleds filled with toys) in that line can see the constellation as we see it. Once you leave that line area, you're never going to see Orion the way it was visible in the Necking Lounge
endpoint 1: between Earth and the constellation lies a point beyond which the constellation no longer appears the way we see it (because the constellation's stars are not all the same distance from earth).
endpoint 2: this is where the light from the stars comprising the constellation no longer is visible to the naked eye (which means it would be impossible to see it, although that endpoint is probably MUCH closer to Earth because the brightness of the stars, based on my half-assed observation, was approximately close to the brightness we observe on Earth).

** There is no universal frame of reference.

*** The Punyverse theory is, of course, still insufficiently challenged.

I think at that point the writing had gotten sloppy enough that they just didn't care that a Raptor, which is supposed to have "short range jump" capability (according to the website) could re-trace the entire linear trip (including 33) with essentially no supplies, and before their onboard air ran out.

"Kara got BACK to Caprica in one jump."

I confirmed it last night watching. It appeared to only be one jump. She also appeared to have been particularly fatigued by it, kinda shaking her head and all.

I think I'm leaning in the following directions of thinking, as I rewatch:

1. I'm assuming the Fleet is zigzagging around somewhat in an attempt to throw off pursuit -- more specifically that it's probably not just picking a random direction and heading out on that line. (unless we're just making it complete fantasy and saying God made it all happen this way)

2. I'm assuming that jump DISTANCE is determined by ship and that the Fleet as a group won't make a jump longer than the slowest ship.

3. The Cylons do some really dumb shit.

Keep in mind that the Chinese archives have very detailed accounts of the voyages to southeast Asia, India, Arabia, and Africa, but the only claims that the exploration fleet reached either the Americas or Europe come from Menzies. There are no European accounts of being visited either. While at least some of the nations visited that were visited in Asia drew up their own accounts of this massive Chinese fleet arriving in their harbors.

Menzies simply didn't do proper research, claimed expertise in areas where he was not knowledgeable, and essential wrote a novel of the "secret history" genre and fraudulently marketed it as non-fiction.

It's not just "the Chinese" who have a problem with Menzies' book, it's scholars in numerous disciplines of many different nationalities who have problems with his book. In other words, the Chinese discovery of America in 1421 hypothesis doesn't hold up to any scrutiny at all-- so my guess is that Menzies is also unqualified to discuss geology.